Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 80190.954814 84659.547167 89125.754779 93921.290289 98921.415627 103977.867532 109474.478707
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 72307.752877 79111.181009 86101.287067 93809.813689 102061.777509 110620.263851 120157.287367
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 67626.306266 76090.732907 84976.577391 94979.241380 105904.079673 117452.377660 130560.930453
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 63002.112278 72606.133247 82874.571310 94635.626636 107697.949003 121724.827177 137889.981260
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 60417.577118 71071.733005 82642.266155 96090.470906 111238.203392 127719.364807 146952.740618
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57895.120562 69390.796477 82053.508563 96967.000741 113978.114182 132704.051961 154800.905900
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55204.217203 67339.797773 80886.087309 97037.712239 115676.969050 136416.637758 161139.365229
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52680.054607 65336.804661 79642.457336 96896.858327 117025.550283 139645.942432 166863.596877
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51525.927975 64855.737483 80089.835319 98651.274895 120511.275237 145290.958042 175349.582009
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50463.366871 64412.513093 80521.924385 100337.699325 123883.029207 150789.199499 183673.765969
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48992.066450 63404.239593 80220.651134 101100.157211 126125.300246 154947.486747 190431.319827
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47130.230797 61843.759792 79189.130840 100926.086550 127203.083963 157701.528663 195518.377242
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45624.080273 60691.565258 78635.133015 101327.402310 128989.876396 161338.461458 201728.433303
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43999.055232 59335.896030 77785.803035 101330.282854 130270.161525 164363.801757 207223.183504
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43108.528907 58863.325981 77990.765614 102600.115511 133075.093834 169216.170610 214926.514459
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41487.081566 57403.951301 76917.064219 102240.049724 133845.323108 171588.196801 219628.511326
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40863.624573 57196.077899 77388.417186 103788.876206 136961.851575 176813.748303 227814.745365
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 39996.089868 56637.447003 77387.658209 104721.442827 139299.852943 181088.096663 234857.086494
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38791.098366 55596.226496 76735.459718 104796.703417 140541.518805 184002.418805 240232.043458
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37549.865180 54466.820648 75933.328780 104646.904027 141472.909559 186516.567413 245109.223731
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37237.932172 54561.218879 76704.695570 106512.696464 144959.801192 192219.818283 253970.546872
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 36914.128523 54623.662983 77423.438001 108305.799652 148358.956437 197830.262973 262750.134212
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36202.130877 54135.269104 77398.757850 109116.368605 150492.559336 201856.643061 269566.319600